AB bayesian-reasoning
Activate when: user says 'Bayesian', 'prior', 'posterior', 'base rate', 'likelihood ratio', or 'update my belief'; someone treats 'the evidence is consistent with X' as proof of X; a high-stakes decision rests on interpreting a test result, security alert, fraud flag, A/B result, or hiring signal; base rates are being ignored in favor of a vivid story. Do NOT activate when: the decision is genuinely deterministic and probabilities do not apply; there is no data or domain knowledge to anchor a prior (Bayes amplifies information, it does not create it from nothing). More: deciqai.com/c/bayesian-reasoning
As a process B 68/100 · Nearly there — weak spots: inputs and preconditions, running it twice, progress reporting
How to improve
- Your own cases (evals/evals.json, 4–6 real requests with expected answers): the full check would then run those instead of a model-drafted suite.
- A spec.yaml with trigger phrases and assertions — a behaviour contract for CI; `skilltest init` writes a template.
Guard findings · 0
✓ No critical or high findings
Files scanned: 6. Evidence is masked. Grey chips explain why severity was lowered.
Against the Agent Skills spec
✓ No remarks against the Agent Skills spec
Process rating: all ten parameters 68/100
- 0Inputs and preconditions. Does not say what the process needs to start
- 0Progress reporting. Says nothing while it works
- 30Running it twice. 2 mutating operations with no state check
- 50When it triggers. No condition that starts the skill
- 55Failures and branches. 1 branches
- 60Result and completion. Output format stated, no completion criterion
- 100Tools and files. No external tools needed
- 100Steps. 17 steps
- 100Consistency. Name and required fields are in place
- 100Execution cost. Instruction body is 1872 tokens
Everything here is measured from the skill text rather than judged by a model, so the numbers are checkable. A parameter weighs more when it is a more common reason for the process to stall.
Quality signals
- +5Description has no quoted example phrases that should trigger the skill
- +1No license
- +2Single-language instructions
- +4Description says when NOT to use the skill
- +3Description length 609: enough signal without eating the budget
- +4Structure: 10 headings
- +3Step-by-step instructions: 17 items
- +3Output format is stated explicitly
- +4Has examples (1 code blocks)
- +4Reference files are cited in the instructions (1 of 1)
Quality base 70; lint remarks subtract, signals add up to 100. Result: 95.