AC probabilistic-thinking
Activate when: user says 'what are the odds,' 'base rate,' 'Bayesian update,' 'calibration,' or 'what's the probability'; user is making a forecast or estimating a conversion/close/hire/outcome probability; someone claims 'I'm 90% sure' without any evidence grounding; a vivid story is being used in place of a prior frequency; team is treating an uncertain outcome as binary will/won't. Do NOT activate when: the problem has a deterministic answer from its inputs (math, well-defined engineering); the question is about identity, ethics, or meaning rather than fact. More: deciqai.com/c/probabilistic-thinking
Activate when: user says 'what are the odds,' 'base rate,' 'Bayesian update,' 'calibration,' or 'what's the probability'; user is making a forecast or…
As a process C 64/100 · Has gaps — weak spots: when it triggers, inputs and preconditions, failures and branches
How to improve
- Your own cases (evals/evals.json, 4–6 real requests with expected answers): the full check would then run those instead of a model-drafted suite.
- A spec.yaml with trigger phrases and assertions — a behaviour contract for CI; `skilltest init` writes a template.
Guard findings · 0
✓ No critical or high findings
Files scanned: 5. Evidence is masked. Grey chips explain why severity was lowered.
Against the Agent Skills spec
✓ No remarks against the Agent Skills spec
Process rating: all ten parameters 64/100
- 0Inputs and preconditions. Does not say what the process needs to start
- 0Failures and branches. Linear process with no failure handling
- 20When it triggers. No condition that starts the skill
- 60Result and completion. Output format stated, no completion criterion
- 100Tools and files. No external tools needed
- 100Steps. 27 steps
- 100Consistency. Name and required fields are in place
- 100Execution cost. Instruction body is 2238 tokens
- 100Running it twice. No mutating operations
- 100Progress reporting. Reports progress
Everything here is measured from the skill text rather than judged by a model, so the numbers are checkable. A parameter weighs more when it is a more common reason for the process to stall.
Quality signals
- +5Description has no quoted example phrases that should trigger the skill
- +4Description does not say when NOT to use the skill (false activations)
- +1No license
- +2Single-language instructions
- +3Description length 610: enough signal without eating the budget
- +4Structure: 11 headings
- +3Step-by-step instructions: 27 items
- +3Output format is stated explicitly
- +4Has examples (1 code blocks)
- +4Reference files are cited in the instructions (1 of 1)
Quality base 70; lint remarks subtract, signals add up to 100. Result: 91.